Trading guide
This guide explains what the green and red trade markers mean, why town prices go up and down, why selling looted gear pays so little, and how to read the "Can buy at" and "Can sell at" lines in item tooltips. Everything here was read out of the game's own code (v1.4.8), so the numbers are the ones the game actually uses. No official module (SandBox, StoryMode, NavalDLC, BirthAndDeath) changes any of it.
Each rule is written in words with a worked example. If you want the exact formulas, every edge case and links to the game code, see the two deep dives: Prices and profit markers and Trade rumors.
What unlocks what
| What you see | What you need |
|---|---|
| Green or red markers on your own items | the Appraiser or Whole Seller perk (Trade 25) |
| Green or red markers on the merchant's items | the Caravan Master or Market Dealer perk (Trade 50) |
| "Can buy at / Can sell at" lines in the item tooltip | nothing, every player has them |
| Extra price rumors from your caravans | the Traveling Rumors perk (Trade 100) |
| Extra price rumors from towns where you own a workshop | the Toll Gates perk (Trade 100) |
Markers only show on the trade screen with a merchant. You will not see them when looting after a battle or when using a stash.
What the colours mean
The game picks a marker by dividing one price by another and checking how far the result is from 1.
Marker ratio = the first price ÷ the second price
- below 0.80: strong green (great deal)
- from 0.80 up to just below 0.95: green (good deal)
- from 0.95 to 1.05: no marker
- above 1.05: red (bad deal)
The lower the ratio, the better for you. Which two prices are compared depends on whose item it is.
Your own items (Appraiser or Whole Seller)
Ratio = what you paid on average ÷ what it sells for here
- What you paid on average: the game remembers how much you paid for each item you bought, averaged over your purchases of that item. Once you hold none of it, the game forgets the average.
- What it sells for here: the price this merchant would give you right now.
Green means selling here earns you at least 5% more than you paid (strong green: at least 20% more). Red means selling here loses you more than 5%.
Worked example. You bought a trade good for 40 each. This merchant pays 44 for it. Ratio = 40 ÷ 44 = 0.91. That is below 0.95, so you get a green marker: selling here is a profit. Had you paid 30, the ratio would be 30 ÷ 44 = 0.68, below 0.80, so strong green.
The game only remembers prices for items you actually bought, and only for items without a quality prefix. Loot, crafted items, quest rewards, and anything "Fine", "Rusty" and so on never get a marker.
The merchant's items (Caravan Master or Market Dealer)
Ratio = this town's price level for the category ÷ the average price level of the category in every other town
- Price level: a multiplier the town applies to the item's base value, explained in the next section. 1 means "normal price", 1.2 means "20% dearer".
- Every other town: all other towns, including ones you have never visited. The average is taken when you open the trade screen.
Green means this kind of item is at least 5% cheaper here than the world average (strong green: at least 20% cheaper), so it is a good place to buy. Red means it is more than 5% dearer.
Worked example. Wine has a price level of 0.75 here and the world average is 1. Ratio = 0.75 ÷ 1 = 0.75, below 0.80, so strong green: stock up on wine here.
This marker works per category (all wine, all grain), not per individual item, and it ignores your trade penalty and your perks. It only says "this town is cheap or dear for this kind of goods".
Number line from 0.6 to 1.4 split at 0.8, 0.95, 1.05 and 1.2 into strong green, green, no marker and red zones. Your goods: paid 30, 40, 50 and 60 against a sell price of 44 give ratios 0.68, 0.91, 1.14 and 1.36, marked strong green, green, red and red. Merchant: price levels 0.75, 1 and 1.15 against a world average of 1 give strong green, no marker and red.
Marker colors for goods you bought (compared with the price here) and for towns (compared with the world average).
| Case | Compared with | Marker |
|---|---|---|
| Paid 30 | sells here for 44 | Strong green (big profit) |
| Paid 40 | sells here for 44 | Green (profit) |
| Paid 50 | sells here for 44 | Red (loss) |
| Paid 60 | sells here for 44 | Red (loss) |
| Local price level 0.75 | world average 1 | Strong green (much cheaper than elsewhere) |
| Local price level 1 | world average 1 | None |
| Local price level 1.15 | world average 1 | Red (dearer than elsewhere) |
There is no "strong red"
The game files contain a strong red marker for a ratio above 1.20, but it never shows up: the game checks "above 1.05" first and stops there. So a red marker can mean you lose 6% or you lose 60%. In the table above, paying 50 and paying 60 both show plain red.
Why prices move
Every town keeps, for each category of goods, three numbers: demand, supply, and the total value of that category in the town's stock. Villages have no market of their own; they use the market of the town they belong to.
From these the game works out the town's price level for the category:
Price level = (Demand ÷ (0.1 × Supply + 0.04 × stock value + 2)), raised to the power 0.6
- Demand: the town's demand number for the category. Higher demand, higher price.
- Supply: the town's supply number for the category. Higher supply, lower price.
- Stock value: the base value of every item of that category the town has in stock, added up. A full warehouse means a low price.
- Raised to the power 0.6: this softens the swing, so doubling demand raises the price by about half rather than doubling it. For animals the power is 0.3, so their prices swing even less.
- The result is kept within limits: for trade goods between 0.1 and 10, for everything else (weapons, armour and so on) between 0.8 and 1.3.
Then:
- Buy price = item value × price level × (1 + penalty), rounded up, at least 1.
- Sell price = item value × price level ÷ (1 + penalty), rounded down, at least 1.
The penalty is the merchant's cut, explained in the next section. For an ordinary sale of trade goods in a town at peace, it starts at 0.06, about 6%.
One more detail: when you sell, the game first adds your item to the town's stock value, then works out the price. So the item you are selling already counts as "one more in the warehouse".
Worked example. A trade good worth 40, in a town with supply 50 and demand 20, which already has 300 worth of it in stock. Penalty 0.06.
- Price level for buying: 20 ÷ (0.1 × 50 + 0.04 × 300 + 2) = 20 ÷ 19 = 1.053. Raised to 0.6, that is 1.031.
- Buy price: 40 × 1.031 × 1.06 = 43.7, rounded up to 44.
- Price level for selling: your item adds 40 to the stock, so 20 ÷ (0.1 × 50 + 0.04 × 340 + 2) = 20 ÷ 20.6 = 0.971. Raised to 0.6, that is 0.982.
- Sell price: 40 × 0.982 ÷ 1.06 = 37.07, rounded down to 37.
The chart and table below show the same item as the town's stock grows from empty to 2000.
Line chart of buy price and sell price for an item worth 40 with supply 50 and demand 20, against the value of that item in the shop from 0 to 2000. Buy price falls from 80 to 18 and sell price from 62 to 15. Both cross the base value of 40 at a few hundred of stock.
A trade good worth 40 with supply 50 and demand 20.
| Goods in the town's stock (value) | Buy for | Sells here for |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80 | 62 |
| 100 | 61 | 49 |
| 200 | 51 | 42 |
| 300 | 44 | 37 |
| 400 | 39 | 33 |
| 500 | 36 | 30 |
| 600 | 33 | 28 |
| 700 | 31 | 26 |
| 800 | 29 | 24 |
| 900 | 27 | 23 |
| 1000 | 26 | 22 |
| 1100 | 25 | 21 |
| 1200 | 24 | 20 |
| 1300 | 23 | 19 |
| 1400 | 22 | 18 |
| 1500 | 21 | 18 |
| 1600 | 20 | 17 |
| 1700 | 20 | 16 |
| 1800 | 19 | 16 |
| 1900 | 19 | 15 |
| 2000 | 18 | 15 |
What this means for you: a town with an empty shelf for a good pays the most for it, and every item you dump there lowers the price of the next one. Sell a big load in two or three towns rather than all in one.
Why selling gear pays little
The penalty is not a fixed 6%. The game builds it up step by step, and some steps are large:
- Start: 0.06.
- At war with the merchant's faction: add 0.5.
- Selling equipment (weapons, armour and the like, not trade goods or animals): add 1.5, plus 0.25 for every tier above 1. If it is a weapon you crafted yourself and you have the Artisan Smith perk, this part is scaled by the Artisan Smith perk.
- Selling a pack animal or a mount: add 0.8 each.
- Trading with a village: add 0.1 when buying, 1.0 when selling.
- Trading with a caravan: add 2.0 when buying a pack animal from it, then 0.1 when buying, 1.0 when selling.
- Then your Trade skill shrinks the whole penalty, and perks change it further (Appraiser for selling equipment, Whole Seller for selling goods, and many more; the deep dive lists them).
Worked example: a tier-3 sword worth 1000. You sell it in a town, at peace, with no Trade skill bonus and no perks, and the town's price level is 1.
- Penalty = 0.06 + 1.5 + 0.25 × (3 − 1) = 0.06 + 1.5 + 0.5 = 2.06.
- Sell price = 1000 × 1 ÷ (1 + 2.06) = 1000 ÷ 3.06 = 326.8, rounded down to 326.
You get about a third of the item's value. A tier-6 item gets 1.5 + 0.25 × 5 = 2.75 added, so it pays even less in proportion. That is why loot sells for so little, and why Appraiser and Trade skill matter if you sell a lot of gear.
Trade rumors
When you hover over an item on the trade screen, the tooltip can say "Can buy at town for: price" or "Can sell at town for: price". These lines come from trade rumors: prices from other towns that the game remembered. You do not need any perk to see them.
Where rumors come from
- You enter a town. The game forgets every old rumor about that town and records a fresh price for every trade good there. This happens at most once per town per day.
- Your clan's caravan enters a town, if you have the Traveling Rumors perk. Same as your own visit.
- Every day, the game adds one random rumor: one town and one item (a trade good or a horse).
- Every day, with the Toll Gates perk: a rumor for every trade good in each town where you own a workshop.
- Asking any caravan about "trade rumors" in dialog, at most once per caravan per day. The caravan tells you about one of the trades it logged with a profit rate above 1.2; trades with a higher profit rate are more likely to be picked. You get that item's price in the town it is heading to and in the town it last visited.
Rumor prices are recorded without your trade penalty or perks. For trade goods they use a penalty of 0.012, lower than the 0.06 starting penalty on your own trades. Because the penalty is lower, a rumored buy price is a little lower, and a rumored sell price a little higher, than what you would pay or get in that town at the 0.06 penalty.
How old a rumor gets
Most rumors last 10 days. The daily random rumor lasts between 10 and 19 days.
Timeline: visit, toll gates and caravan dialog rumors last 10 days, the daily random rumor lasts 10 to 19 days. Below, eleven blocks from 10 days left to 0 days left: full colour from 10 down to 5, then fading at 4 and 3, and half strength from 2 to 0.
How long each source keeps a rumor.
| Source | Shortest (days) | Longest (days) |
|---|---|---|
| Visit | 10 | 10 |
| Daily random | 10 | 19 |
| Toll gates | 10 | 10 |
| Caravan dialog | 10 | 10 |
A rumor starts to fade 5 days before it expires.
| Days left | Strength |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 |
| 9 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 |
The game keeps at most one rumor per town and item. When a new rumor arrives for a pair it already knows, the new one is thrown away and the old price stays. Only your own visit (or your caravan's, with Traveling Rumors) clears out a town's old rumors first. So:
- After your own visit, the prices for that town are fresh.
- Rumors from Toll Gates and from asking caravans only get through once the previous rumor for that town and item has expired and been cleared out. Their prices can be up to 10 days old.
How to read the tooltip
The tooltip compares each rumor with the price here, for the item you are hovering, and only shows rumors about other towns:
- "Can buy at town" shows when the rumored buy price there < 0.9 × what this item sells for here. In words: you could buy it there for more than 10% less than this merchant pays you for it.
- "Can sell at town" shows when the rumored sell price there > 1.1 × what this item costs to buy here. In words: you could sell it there for more than 10% more than this merchant charges you for it.
- If neither holds, the rumor is not shown. If both hold, only the "Can buy at" line is shown.
"Here" means your real price in this town, with your penalty and perks. Lines are sorted by the rumored sell price, highest first.
A line's brightness shows its age. Brightness = days left ÷ 5, capped between 0.5 and 1. A rumor is at full brightness until its last 5 days, then fades, and stays at half brightness until it expires.
Worked example. You hover over a good: this merchant pays 100 for it and charges 110. A rumor says you can buy it in another town for 80. Is 80 < 0.9 × 100 = 90? Yes, so the tooltip shows "Can buy at that town for: 80". With 4 days left on the rumor, the line is drawn at 4 ÷ 5 = 0.8 brightness.
Table of four cases with local buy, local sell, rumor buy and rumor sell prices: cheap to buy there gives a buy line, dear to sell there gives a sell line, nothing stands out gives no line, and when both conditions hold the buy line wins.
Whether the rumor adds a line to the item tooltip.
| Case | Rumor buy | Rumor sell | Sells here for | Buy here for | Tooltip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap to buy there | 80 | 75 | 100 | 110 | Buy line |
| Dear to sell there | 140 | 130 | 90 | 100 | Sell line |
| Nothing stands out | 105 | 100 | 100 | 110 | No line |
| Both; buy line wins | 80 | 130 | 100 | 105 | Buy line |
The "both conditions" row only illustrates the rule: real rumor prices (sell below buy) never satisfy both.
Practical tips
- Take Appraiser or Whole Seller early (Trade 25). Without one of them you cannot see whether selling here beats what you paid.
- A red marker can hide a huge loss. There is no strong red, so check the actual numbers before selling anything with a red marker.
- Merchant markers compare categories with the whole world, including towns you have never seen and never will. Green says "cheap here", not "you can sell it for more somewhere near".
- Do not dump a whole load in one town. Every item you sell adds to the town's stock and lowers the price of the next one.
- Sell gear in towns, not villages or caravans, and not to a faction you are at war with. Each of those adds to the penalty.
- Bright tooltip lines are fresher. A fading line has less than 5 days left; a half-bright one has 2.5 days or less.
- Visit to refresh. Prices from Toll Gates and caravan chatter can be up to 10 days old; walking into the town replaces them with today's prices.
- Rumor prices use a penalty of 0.012, lower than the 0.06 starting penalty on your own trades, so expect to pay a little more and get a little less than the rumor says.